@Article{Eyring_NatClimChange_20190201, author = {Veronika Eyring and Peter M. Cox and Gregory M. Flato and Peter J. Gleckler and Gab Abramowitz and Peter Caldwell and William D. Collins and Bettina K. Gier and Alex D. Hall and Forrest M. Hoffman and George C. Hurtt and Alexandra Jahn and Chris D. Jones and Stephen A. Klein and John Krasting and Lester Kwiatkowski and Ruth Lorenz and Eric Maloney and Gerald A. Meehl and Angeline Pendergrass and Robert Pincus and Alex C. Ruane and Joellen L. Russell and Benjamin M. Sanderson and Benjamin D. Santer and Steven C. Sherwood and Isla R. Simpson and Ronald J. Stouffer and Mark S. Williamson}, title = {Taking Climate Model Evaluation to the Next Level}, journal = NatClimChange, volume = 9, number = 2, pages = {102--110}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y}, year = 2019, abstract = {Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.} }