@Article{Wang_NatCommun_20221111,
 author		= {Yaoping Wang and Jiafu Mao and Forrest M. Hoffman and C{\'{e}}line J. W. Bonfils and Herv{\'{e}} Douville and Mingzhou Jin and Peter E. Thornton and Daniel M. Ricciuto and Xiaoying Shi and Haishan Chen and Stan D. Wullschleger and Shilong Piao and Yongjiu Dai},
 title		= {Quantification of Human Contribution to Soil Moisture-based Terrestrial Aridity},
 journal	= NatCommun,
 volume		= 13,
 number		= 1,
 pages		= 6848,
 doi		= {10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5},
 day		= 11,
 month		= nov,
 year		= 2022,
 abstract	= {Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45$^\circ$N--65$^\circ$N, during 1971--2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0--10~cm SSI during August--November, and 0--100~cm during September--April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI's signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0--10~cm than 0--100~cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.}
}