@Article{Keppel-Aleks_JClim_20130701,
 author		= {Gretchen Keppel-Aleks and James T. Randerson and Keith Lindsay and Britton B. Stephens and J. Keith Moore and Scott C. Doney and Peter E. Thornton and Natalie M. Mahowald and Forrest M. Hoffman and Colm Sweeney and Pieter P. Tans and Paul O. Wennberg and Steven C. Wofsy},
 title		= {Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the {C}ommunity {E}arth {S}ystem {M}odel: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries},
 journal	= JClim,
 volume		= 26,
 number		= 13,
 pages		= {4447--4475},
 doi		= {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00589.1},
 day		= 1,
 month		= jul,
 year		= 2013,
 abstract	= {Changes in atmospheric CO$_2$ variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO$_2$ for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model--Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO$_2$ simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO$_2$ was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO$_2$ showed correspondingly weak north--south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO$_2$ and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north--south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east--west contrasts in CO$_2$ also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO$_2$ increased to 1150~ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60\% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2--10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.}
}